October 8, 2020

For immediate release                                                                                  
Contact: Brian Watson
[email protected]

Texas statewide poll shows Trump leading Biden +7% among likely voters

Republican incumbents Trump and Cornyn lead Democratic challengers Biden and Hegar in Texas, according to Crosswind Texas Pulse Poll

Austin, TX – A Crosswind Media & Public Relations statewide survey of 1000 likely voters in Texas (MoE +/- 3%) shows Republican Donald Trump leading 51 percent to Democrat Joe Biden’s 44 percent. The same poll shows Texas senior Senator John Cornyn leading Democratic challenger MJ Hegar by a difference of 48 percent to 39 percent, although there is greater uncertainty toward the Senate candidates with 10 percent of respondents remaining undecided. The poll also identifies gaps between male and female voters for both races and reports attitudes toward the response of both President Donald Trump and Governor Greg Abbott to the COVID-19 pandemic. Results also show Trump and Cornyn with modest leads among self-identified Hispanic voters and strong support among male and White voters.

“Democrats will need a November surprise if they want to flip Texas this election cycle,” said Crosswind CEO Thomas Graham. “Both Republicans at the top of the ballot lead their Democratic opponents by significant numbers, indicating a strong Republican base that we believe will keep Texas red.”

A gap among female and male respondents

As Trump leads Biden in the race overall, Joe Biden has the advantage among female voters (49 to 45 percent) compared to males who tend to support Trump (58 percent to 37 percent). A similar gender gap appears for the Senate race between Democrat MJ Hegar and Republican John Cornyn. Hegar has a small lead among female voters (43 to 41 percent) compared to males who tend to support Cornyn (56 percent to 34 percent).

Republicans enjoy a modest advantage among Hispanic/Latino voters

Trump currently holds a modest lead over Biden among self-identified Hispanic voters. 48 percent of Hispanic Texans surveyed express support for Trump compared to 46 percent supporting Joe Biden, a difference that is within the poll’s margin of error. The same difference appears in the race for U.S. Senate. John Cornyn leads MJ Hegar among Hispanic voters 41 percent to 39 percent. Both incumbents are bolstered by leads among white voters. Trump currently leads Biden among white Texans 57 percent to 38 percent, while Cornyn leads among whites 56 percent to 33 percent.

“Our results are likely encouraging for Republicans compared to other recent statewide and national polls,” said Crosswind analyst Dr. Brian Watson. “We are glad to contribute a data-point to the discussion and encourage all Texans to vote in November.”

Methodology

In this survey of 1000 likely voters in Texas, there is a +/- 3% margin of error assuming a 95 percent confidence interval. Demographics in this sample are based on self-reported responses. 53 percent of respondents identified as female and 47 percent identified as male. For age, 37 percent of the sample is between 18-39 years old, 48 percent is between 40-64, and 15 percent is 65 years or older. By ethnicity, 24 percent of the sample identified as Hispanic/Latino, 12 percent identified as Black, 56 percent identified as white, and 8 percent represent other groups. By political party affiliation, the sample is 38 percent Republican, 32 percent Democrat and 30 percent chose neither major party.

The survey was conducted by Crosswind and Pulse Opinion Research on October 5-6, 2020.  Pulse Opinion Research, LLC is an independent public opinion research firm using automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports, LLC.

For more information or for a copy of the poll’s crosstabs, please send a request to [email protected].

About Crosswind Media & PR

Crosswind Media & Public Relations is one of the leading firms in the U.S., ranking in the top 100 nationally. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, Crosswind’s roots are in Texas and serves clients around the world. The agency specializes in brand management, crisis communication, thought leadership and event planning and serves clients in the energy, infrastructure, entertainment, education, technology, banking & finance, and health care sectors. For more information, go to crosswindpr.com or email [email protected].